Guesstimate — Number of new jobs in India in a year?

So, now I am in the final year of my Bachelor of Technology and I’m getting ready to start looking for a jobs and one question struck me that What is the total number of people who get a new job in India in a year? This is a guesstimate approach to get into the solution.

Assumptions:

1. The total population of India is 1.3 Billion.
2. The population of India has been divided into 3 age groups:- 15-18, 18-30, and 30 above as per our requirements.
3. We also know that India has more than 50% population below the age of 25 and 65% population below the age of 35.
4. Let’s say that one of the basic requirement to get a job is to have some educational background.
   • Age 15-18: Students Completing 10th and 12th grade.
   • Age 18-30: Students in diploma, Undergraduate, graduate, doctorate.
   • Age 30-60: Students mostly in graduate and doctorate.

Farming is central to India’s socio-economic development, being the direct source of livelihood for more than 50% of its population. So for this analysis the new population is 650 million.

From the table we can estimate that:

1. Enrollment Every Year:
   • Age 15-18: 6% of total population = 0.06 * 650 = 40 million (approximately) This is further divided into 10th and 12th standard.
   • 10th Class: 20 million
   • 12th Class: 20 million - Age 18 - 30: 5% of total population = 0.05 * 650 = 30 million (approximately). - Age 30 Above: 0.5% of total population = 0.005 * 650 = 3 million (approximately)
2. Graduates Every Year:
   • Age 15-18: The number of students enrolling into 10th and 12th standard eventually complete their education due to the support of their parents, the level of difficulty of education being not that high.
   • Students Completing 10th standard: 18 million (Approximately)
   • Students Completing 12th standard: 18 million (Approximately) - Age 18-30: Assuming 70% of 30 million students enroll into Diploma Undergraduate, Graduate, Doctorate complete their education is equal to 20 million (Approximately). - Age 30 Above = 75% of 3 million graduate every year = 2 million (Approximately)

The Final Calculations:

1. Age 15-18: Some start working after 10th or 12th standard due to poverty, poor grades and other factors = 0.5% of 36 million = 180,000 (Approximately)
2. Age 18-30: Due to poor quality of education in India, only 45% of the graduates are able to get a job: 40% of 20 million = 8 million.
3. Age 30 Above: 45% of the graduates get a job due to previous work experience and higher education = 45% of 5 million = 2 million.
4. Furthermore there are two important factors-
   • 60% of the graduates from the previous year did not get a job. Some of them would probably get a job in the next year. Therefore estimating, 10% of 12 million will get a job this year = 1 million (Approximately).
   • Some people, already on workforce, will end up with a job change = 50,000.

Final Conclusion

According to this guesstimate the total number of new jobs in India in a year is approximately 11.23 Million.

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